According to NASA, the most potentially hazardous asteroid is the asteroid Bennu. There are estimates that this asteroid may collide with Earth on September 24, 2182 with a probability of 0.04%. This is a very low probability, but it is not zero. At the moment, it is impossible to say for sure whether Bennu will collide with the Earth or not, we can only estimate the probability.
The Bennu diameter is about 500 meters. In the event of a collision with the Earth, it is capable of completely destroying a fairly large country, such as France or Germany. Bennu orbit is not very elongated and is slightly inclined to the plane of the Earth orbit. The period of its orbit around the Sun is about 437 days.
There is a ridge along the equator of Bennu, which gives the asteroid an unusual shape, resembling a whirligig. Bennu consists of a very loose material and, in fact, is a pile of dark stones held together by gravity. Recently, samples from this asteroid was delivered to Earth. This outstanding result was obtained as part of the very successful OSIRIS-REx mission.
On September 30, 2054, Bennu will pass about 6 million km from Earth, that is, 15 times farther than the Moon. This distance is safe, but this approach introduces some uncertainty about how much the asteroid orbit will change in the future. The fact is that there is an error in determining the parameters of the asteroid orbit, and non-gravitational effects also make an error. Together, this leads to the fact that the error accumulates and increases many times with each approach of the asteroid to the planet. The actual orbit may differ slightly from the calculated one. Every year the deviation of the real orbit from the calculated one will only increase.
The next approach of Bennu to Earth, which will take place in 2060, can still be predicted fairly accurately. On September 23, 2060, the asteroid Bennu will pass only about 750 thousand km from Earth, that is, twice as far as the Moon. This distance is safe. However, it is pointless to give the parameters of subsequent approaches that will occur after 2060. One can only try to estimate the probability of what will happen to the asteroid Bennu after 2060.
So, up to and including 2060, Bennu does not threaten the Earth. But the threat may arise after 2060, and most likely not before the next century.
Modeling and rendering were performed by author of AstroTubo channel using own software. The calculations took into account the mutual influence of the Sun, all the planets of the Solar System, the Moon and the asteroid on each other. Relativistic effects were also taken into account in the calculation.
The track Oneiri by Kai Engel sounds in this video. This track was not changed. Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) license.
